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| Rusmet sees MEA lagging scrap and billet price recovery - 16 Mar, 2010 | ||
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March often is a hot month in scrap market. The stockpiles decreased in winter till the lowest, the weather is not good enough yet for the collecting volumes increase and metallurgical plants are increasing outputs counting on spring rally and are ready to pay much for raw materials. At first sight the current situation in global scrap market has all these characteristics. There is scrap shortage now and the demand increase from the US, East Asian and Turkish metallurgists simultaneously spurred the prices boost to the almost highest level in recent 1.5 years. The quotations for Western HMS No 1 scrap in East Asian countries increased in the beginning of March to USD 400 per tonne CFR and Turkish steel manufacturers have to buy similar scrap at USD 380 per tonne CFR and more. Due to scrap price increase the rally in semis market began. Domestic prices for semi products in Turkey exceeded USD 500 per tonne EXW without VAT and Russian and Ukrainian traders increased their prices to USD 490 per tonne to USD 500 per tonne FOB. Rebar manufacturers had to raise their quotations as well. Rebar prices in Turkish market increased to USD 540 per tonne to 550 per tonne EXW. However, current increase of scrap, semis and rebar prices in Middle East do not have a substantial part. There is no spring demand rally for construction steel in the region yet. In principle, in some countries long products consumption is at high level. The crisis has not affected the North Africa construction sector. The highest construction growth was in Egypt, where the government finances the infrastructure projects, as a part of the stimulating program, and the banks provide loans for residential development. Due to its sizes and big population Saudi Arabia has high demand for rebar. Large scale restoration works are held in Iraq. Construction steel consumption in these countries is likely to exceed the before crisis level. However, the problem is that in the region this growth does not cover the fall in UAE construction sector. UAE can not count on the recovery in the nearest future. Middle East keeps the status of the large net importer of steel, in particular, rebar. However, the scale of this net importer is substantially lower than in the before crisis times. As the result, the supply excess can be seen in the region today. That is why most consumers faced Turkish initiative on the prices increase very carefully. Earlier the prices for Turkish rebar used to increase due to scrap prices boosts and then returned back. Last time it happened in February 2010. In a couple of weeks scrap prices will start decreasing again influenced, at least, by the seasonal factors. Besides, in the most Middle East countries domestic rebar prices increased to a small extent last time. Nevertheless, rebar manufacturers have some chances for a new increase. First of all, Turkish metallurgists have nowhere to step back. Scrap and semis prices increased to the higher extent than rebar. It is possible to assume that rebar export quotations will exceed USD 550 per tonne FOB very soon. Thus, the metallurgists will receive more space to retreat. Seasonal factor will play in favor of the manufacturers. Whatever low it is, the construction steel demand is growing all over the Mediterranean and the Gulf region. At that many traders decreased their stockpiles in winter and they will have to start to refill them. Finally, Far East long products market is back to life. The prices for scrap, semis and rebar in this region are higher than in Middle East. The difference is about USD 30 per tonne and more than USD 70 which makes this market attractive for the suppliers from Turkey and CIS. In particular, Vietnam is a big buyer of Russian semis and Singapore and Thailand in January to February were in top ten importers of Turkish steel. Besides, Turkish companies increase rebar and wire rod supplies to the USA. (Sourced from Rusmet.ru) | ||
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